Sevastopol, 2nd March 2014

Last night our school had a quiz which happened as normal, although there were only about 12 students there. The pub was near the main square where people have been gathering here. At 5pm, when I went past, there were knots of people, and a couple of Russian flags, but not many. An article on the BBC talks about a relaxed atmosphere and a kind of Saturday stroll in Sevastopol, and this is how it felt to me for all of the five minutes I was outside walking from the bus stop to the pub.
After the quiz, I went to a friend’s house to play a game and try to forget about the situation for a few hours for the first time in a couple of days. This worked until he got a message saying “We’re at war.” I deliberately didn’t look at the media until this morning, and when I did I discovered that about twenty minutes after I last checked it yesterday, the whole situation had changed again, or at least crystallised. Obama’s veiled threats to Putin on Friday have become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Looking out of my window this morning, everything is normal. It’s 8am on Sunday and the streets are just beginning to wake up. I’m not going to put myself into dangerous situations, and even if there is an invasion, they aren’t going to start randomly picking off civilians in the streets. It will be focussed on key strategic points, which I’m not anywhere near. I sincerely hope that Putin and the Ukrainian government are sensible enough to stop before it gets to the stage of violence.
Part of the frustration is the comparison between the fighting at Maidan two weeks ago, which was seen as in some way acceptable because it was fighting for the ‘right’ reasons, and the pro-Russian protests, considerably less violent in most cases, which are apparently seen negatively by the media.
The rise in tension and associated violence (for example in Kharkiv yesterday) seems to be happening because of the lack of reasoned dialogue. Instead it’s a case of hot-headed people standing off against each other, with none of them really wiling to talk and to come to a compromise over the situation. The Crimean parliament is led by a man who nobody has elected, and who has taken control of most areas of the government without any real authority, including taking it upon himself to ask Putin for support and protection. This worries me, because they are playing with the lives of thousands of people. However, the Ukrainian government is in exactly the same position: nobody has elected them either. The help they are asking for may be mostly financial, but they are still following the same path of making large-scale decisions which potentially alienate sections of the population and could have important repurcussions for the future of Ukraine. Agreements for closer ties with the EU fall into this category, and I don’t think anything like that should be signed by an interim government, because there will always be an argument that people did not elect them, and therefore they do not have the right to speak for the country.
The BBC have interviewed four people from Crimea and this seems to be a fairly representative spread of opinions to me. It also shows the kind of information people are drawing on to form their opinions.
I would like to see representatives from all of the affected groups gathered together and discussing exactly what it is they want, listening to each other, coming to a compromise and working out how best to achieve the stability and security Ukraine and Crimea need so much right now. For me, this discussion should include the current Ukrainian president and prime minister, and representatives of each of the main political parties from Kiev, the Crimean leader, representatives of the pro-Russians, Tartars and any other large groups from Crimea, Putin, and an EU representative. The last two should be there as outsiders to be consulted with as they are likely to be the closest economic partners in any Ukrainian/Crimean future, but Ukraine/Crimea should not need their approval for any decisions. I don’t believe that Obama has any place in the discussion unless America are willing to offer financial help. The restrictions associated with any economic aid, wherever it comes from, should be realistic and should not place additional burdens on the country, and I can’t help feeling that they should be tied to economic and not political requirements. I also don’t see what use visits by random international politicians, like William Hague, can actually do on the ground, apart from distracting politicians here from doing the work they need to.
Everything I’ve said in this post are my personal opinions. They are an idealistic view of what politics should be designed to achieve, and of a sensible, patient group of people who are willing to cooperate to achieve the best for this country. Unfortunately, this is not what I can see at the moment, with those concerned sitting in their isolated castles posturing at each other, and all trying to be the strongest man in the situation, with a general air of distrust and accusations and rumour flying all over the place.
I have no idea what will happen next. I’ve been asked whether I’m going to leave Crimea, as advised by the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office. At the moment the answer is no, because I don’t think it would help. In my daily life, I feel completely safe. I actually see fewer soldiers, sailors and military units on a day-to-day basis than I did before the whole situation began. I’m constantly thinking about whether my decision to stay is the right one, but leaving would cause problems for the school I work for, would leave me with nothing to do for an indeterminate period of time, and would leave behind people I care about and worry about, people who don’t have the same luxury of being able to drop everything and leave. No matter what I’m doing, the situation is always at the back of my mind, even when I try to forget about it. I just hope it can be resolved soon, and without any more violence.